AGP Executive Report

Climate Watch: A strong El Niño is expected to persist through February 2027, raising the risk of weather extremes and food and water stress. African countries are urged to act early to protect vulnerable communities. Land Restoration: A $78 million UN-backed Great Green Wall programme will restore more than 270,000 hectares and support five million people across nine countries, including Ethiopia. Green Legacy: UN and African forestry experts praised Ethiopia’s Green Legacy Initiative as a continental restoration model, highlighting science-based policies and agroforestry as key to sustaining its gains and supporting livelihoods.

Green Legacy: UN and African forestry experts praised Ethiopia’s Green Legacy Initiative as a continental restoration benchmark, while stressing that science-led policy, agroforestry and lessons from past experience are vital to sustaining its gains and supporting livelihoods. Environmental research: Two African scientists won $150,000 grants for projects using microbial signals to spot freshwater decline early and studying forest resilience in the Congo Basin. Energy transition: Ethiopia’s shift to electric vehicles is being framed as an economic and energy-security measure: a 2024 ban on petrol and diesel vehicle imports aims to cut a fossil-fuel bill exceeding $5 billion, with hydropower helping power the transition. Climate risk: UNICEF warns that 347 million children in nearly 100 countries could face severe floods or drought by December as El Niño strengthens.

Flood Risk: Maersk warned that heavy rain from October to December could disrupt roads and cargo routes in East Africa. Forecasts give a 90% chance of above-average rainfall over southern Ethiopia; rain may replenish pasture and water, but flooding could damage infrastructure. The World Bank has also warned El Niño could reduce crop yields. Hydropower: Ethiopia’s dams, including the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, have made the country a regional electricity supplier, but rural access remains limited and hydropower investments carry diplomatic costs over shared waters.

Climate & Food Security: The World Bank warns El Niño could cut yields and disrupt rains across Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan and Uganda, with a below-average Meher harvest expected in Ethiopia and food assistance needs rising to 62 million people by March 2027. Water & Energy Diplomacy: A new analysis revisits Ethiopia’s hydropower push as a regional “hydro-dollar” engine, highlighting how GERD reshaped upstream water control even as Egypt’s opposition continues. Agriculture & Food Systems: An agroecology advocate argues Ethiopia and Africa must avoid repeating old models where “improved” crops become mainly commercial opportunities for large buyers, urging support for African-adapted crops and community rights. Ethiopia Governance: Ethiopia’s new five-year parliamentary chapter opens with PM Abiy Ahmed stressing Medemer, peace and dialogue, and stronger implementation capacity. Regional Security & Rivers: Ethiopia’s Nile and Red Sea posture remains in focus amid renewed Horn tensions, including calls for restraint and negotiations.

Horn of Africa Diplomacy and Security: Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud signed a quadrilateral declaration in New El-Alamein that regional observers say tightens a bloc affecting Ethiopia’s Nile and Red Sea interests, while analysts question whether Mogadishu’s diplomatic travel is purely policy or also a channel in the Ethiopia–Eritrea–Egypt rivalry. Ethiopia’s Nile and Sea Messaging: Ethiopia’s foreign ministry reiterated that nearly all Blue Nile flow comes from Ethiopian highlands and warned that maritime and security discussions must account for Ethiopia’s “legitimate interests,” rejecting coercion and proxy actions. Ethiopia’s New Political Chapter: Ethiopia inaugurated its new five-year government under the Medemer framework, with President Taye Atske Selassie outlining priorities on unity, peace, dialogue, and ending the cycle of armed conflict. AI Governance Push: A new Africa-wide policy debate highlights the need for accountable, inclusive AI deployment, noting implementation gaps even where strategies exist, including Ethiopia’s inclusion in national AI plans. Forestry Science-to-Policy Link: Ethiopia hosted the first SPIN Africa forestry dialogue to connect researchers and policymakers across seven countries. Kurmuk Mine Update: Allied Gold reported exploration progress at Ethiopia’s Kurmuk Mine, with commissioning nearing first ore and plans to extend mine life. Climate and Food Stress for Women: CARE reports compounding crises are worsening hunger and resilience for women in Ethiopia and other countries, with drought a major driver.

Ethiopia’s Political Reset: Ethiopia inaugurated its new five-year chapter with the seventh House of Peoples’ Representatives, parliamentary leadership in both chambers, and PM Abiy Ahmed sworn in for a second term—setting the stage for a new federal government and its development priorities. Nile and Red Sea Push: Ethiopia also reiterated firm claims over the Blue Nile and its “legitimate interests” in Red Sea maritime affairs, warning that rhetoric and proxy actions won’t change its role—while regional leaders in Egypt issued a joint declaration on Red Sea navigation, sovereignty, and Nile water security that indirectly heightens pressure around Ethiopia. Forestry Research Meets Policy: Addis Ababa hosted the first SPIN Africa regional science-policy dialogue on forestry, linking policymakers and researchers across seven countries to make forestry research more responsive to policy needs. Housing Costs and Climate-Linked Stress: A Habitat for Humanity report finds 75% of people globally cut back expenses to afford housing, with many sacrificing food and even delaying medical care—an affordability squeeze that can worsen vulnerability to environmental shocks. Tigray Conflict Risks Spillover: Reporting says Ethiopian government forces recaptured Mekelle after TPLF withdrew, ending a ceasefire and raising fears of renewed wider instability in the Horn. Tobacco Illicit Trade: Data from Zambia’s Tobacco Control Data Initiative shows illicit cigarette prevalence at 12.2%, with imported cigarettes far more likely to be illicit—linked to enforcement and supply-chain vulnerabilities.

Ethiopia Capital Markets: Ethiopia’s Capital Market Authority says citizen participation is accelerating, with about 38,000 people opening investment accounts and daily trading often exceeding 50 million birr as ECMA modernizes the system. Horn of Africa Security: The U.S. urged Ethiopia and Eritrea to show maximum restraint and return to dialogue under the 2018 peace framework as fighting in Tigray raises fears of wider instability. Diplomatic Fallout: Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara and expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats, while Eritrea severed ties—moves that deepen regional tensions with direct spillovers for cross-border stability. Nile Politics: Egypt reiterated support for a diplomatic solution to the Nile dam dispute and called for cooperation on shared rivers, framing water management as a test of African integration. Climate & Fossil Fuels: A 350.org report ahead of COP31 alleges Türkiye and Australia’s coal supply chain is linked to over 75 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions since Paris, warning fossil fuel ties could undermine transition pledges. Water Risk Framing: A new “water bankruptcy” concept argues many systems can’t bounce back from chronic overuse, pushing policymakers to move beyond short-term “water crisis” thinking. Finance Liberalization: Ethiopia’s central bank confirmed two foreign banks have applied to enter via greenfield investments, signaling further opening of the banking sector.

Horn of Africa diplomacy under strain: Egypt’s PM Mostafa Madbouly said Cairo will keep pushing a diplomatic solution to the Nile dam dispute, stressing rivers are governed by international law and calling for dialogue over confrontation. Regional water politics: Egypt’s President al-Sisi reiterated rejection of foreign interference and urged African states to coordinate on shared rivers as a test of integration and non-harm. Ethiopia–Eritrea escalation risks: The US urged Ethiopia and Eritrea to exercise maximum restraint and return to dialogue as fighting in Tigray rises; Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara and expelled Eritrean diplomats, while Eritrea severed ties. UN security focus: The UN Security Council is set for closed consultations on northern Ethiopia tensions, warning the fragile calm after the 2022 Pretoria Agreement could unravel. Climate and resilience angle: IFRC said China–Africa partnerships are strengthening community resilience and disaster risk reduction, including in Ethiopia and Djibouti. Food security warning: El Niño-linked risks are expected to worsen food insecurity in Malawi, with households lacking income as rainfall delays bite. Energy and environment watch: COP31 coverage highlights electrification as a key climate lever, while Lamu’s planned Dangote refinery is set to boost port traffic and logistics—raising scrutiny for environmental safeguards.

Ethiopia–Eritrea Tensions: The US urged Ethiopia and Eritrea to exercise “maximum restraint” and return to dialogue under the 2018 peace framework, warning that any fresh confrontation could trigger a wider humanitarian crisis across the Horn. Diplomatic Fallout: Ethiopia’s embassy closure in Asmara, Eritrea’s severing of ties, and reciprocal diplomatic expulsions have raised fears of escalation and regional spillover. Northern Ethiopia Security: The UN Security Council is set for closed consultations on deteriorating conditions in northern Ethiopia, after renewed friction threatens to unravel the 2022 Pretoria Agreement. Humanitarian Resilience: An IFRC official said China–Africa partnerships are strengthening community resilience and disaster risk reduction capacity, with training linked to Ethiopia and Djibouti. Food Security & Climate: Reports warn El Niño-linked rainfall delays and dry spells could worsen food insecurity in parts of East and Southern Africa, driven by weak household incomes and limited agricultural labor. Water & Forests: A Rome-based forestry forum highlights forests’ role in “food, resilience and prosperity,” echoing the need to protect forest livelihoods.

Climate & energy transition: UN chief António Guterres’ COP31 push spotlights electrification as a practical climate lever, with Türkiye aiming to lift electricity’s share of global energy demand to 35% by 2035. Foreign exchange & local industry: M-PESA Ethiopia CEO Wim Vanhelleputte says Ethiopia’s FX reform is easing the path for local manufacturing and investment, turning “short-term pain” into longer-term supply-chain growth. Northern Ethiopia conflict & regional spillover: Multiple reports warn that renewed fighting in Ethiopia is tightening diplomatic and security knots across the Horn and Red Sea, with Ethiopia’s rupture with Eritrea and tensions involving Egypt raising risks for maritime stability. Humanitarian coordination: A separate analysis argues northern Ethiopia’s aid delivery will hinge on disciplined coordination between federal authorities and humanitarian groups under clear responsibilities. Solar irrigation in Ethiopia: A feature on solar-powered irrigation highlights real diesel savings for farmers, while stressing that water management, maintenance, financing, and market access decide whether gains last. Forests for food: A Rome-based piece ties forest protection to livelihoods and resilience, echoing FAO’s World Forest Week theme. Regional oil infrastructure: Kenya’s Lamu refinery plans (linked to Dangote) are framed as a potential boost for shipping and port activity, but also raise questions about environmental and pre-construction scrutiny.

Irreecha & seasonal renewal: As Ethiopia’s rains ease into Birraa, ENA highlights Irreecha as a nature-linked festival of gratitude at rivers and lakes, with Oromo communities gathering for prayers, songs and renewal. Northern Ethiopia humanitarian coordination: A commentary stresses that aid in renewed Tigray fighting must be grounded in respect for Ethiopian law, clear roles, and steady government–humanitarian coordination to avoid past access breakdowns. Regional security spillover: Multiple reports point to a worsening Horn-of-Africa security picture, including Ethiopia’s reported plan to withdraw over 3,000 troops from Somalia amid pressure from fighting at home, and escalating Ethiopia–Eritrea–Egypt diplomatic rupture that raises risks for Red Sea maritime stability. Climate-smart water & farming: A feature on solar-powered irrigation in Ethiopia says solar pumps can cut diesel costs and help farmers cope with rainfall uncertainty, but benefits depend on water management, maintenance and financing. Forests for people: A World Forest Week/FAO-linked piece argues forests protect livelihoods and resilience, echoing the “forests feed, protect, and sustain people” message. Education & sustainability links: A scholarship partnership (Bocconi/Fondazione Nuovo Fiore) supports Ethiopian students, while another global item urges universities to build multi-stakeholder coalitions for education for sustainable development.

Ethiopia–Eritrea diplomatic rupture: Ethiopia and Eritrea cut ties after renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia, with Addis Ababa expelling Eritrean diplomats and shutting its embassy in Asmara, while Eritrea reciprocated—raising fears of a wider return to the 2020–2022 conflict. Nile tensions and “external interference” claims: Egypt rejected Ethiopia’s accusations of interference, insisting on non-interference, while Ethiopia and officials point to regional pressure around Nile projects like GERD and to blocked infrastructure and water investments. Renewed war risk in the north: Reports say fighting tied to the TPLF and allied armed groups is expanding across Afar and Amhara, with the Ethiopian federal government and regional dynamics raising the stakes for humanitarian conditions. Water and climate resilience in focus: Ethiopia’s solar irrigation push is highlighted as a practical way to reduce diesel dependence and keep farming going amid rainfall uncertainty, alongside calls for better water management and financing. Health and climate-linked shocks: A malaria landscape analysis reports 7.3 million confirmed cases and 1,157 deaths in 2024, warning that climate variability and service gaps are feeding resurgence. Regional energy politics: Ethiopia’s wider Horn-of-Africa energy and infrastructure context continues to draw attention, including the Lamu refinery push and its potential spillovers for regional fuel security and investment.

Energy & Industry: Kenya and Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote broke ground on a $16bn Lamu refinery (700,000 bpd), with regional leaders attending and governments offered a combined 30% stake—an East Africa energy-security bet that also raises land and environmental scrutiny. Water & Climate-Smart Farming: Ethiopia’s solar irrigation push is expanding from Addis Ababa-area cooperatives to off-grid smallholders, promising diesel savings and steadier production amid rainfall uncertainty, but hinging on water management, maintenance, and financing. Health & Climate Risk: Ethiopia reported 7.3 million malaria cases and 1,157 deaths in 2024, with experts linking the rebound to longer gaps in nets, spraying, diagnostics, and surveillance—set against climate variability and population movement. Conflict & Regional Stability: Fighting in northern Ethiopia is intensifying and Ethiopia-Eritrea ties have collapsed, with Ethiopia expelling diplomats and closing its Asmara embassy—while the African Union urges restraint to prevent wider destabilization. Governance & Finance: Ethiopia’s financial reforms are drawing interest from foreign banks, as Addis Ababa and the World Bank deepen cooperation on private-sector-led growth, jobs, e-mobility, and water initiatives. Biodiversity & Land Restoration: A story on wild donkeys creating an oasis highlights how reintroduced wildlife can reshape arid landscapes over decades.

Water & Nile Dispute: Ethiopia says a new national committee has documented 22+ water and infrastructure projects “blocked or obstructed” by Egypt, including GERD, and is compiling evidence for audits and compensation claims. Northern Conflict & Risk to Civilians: Renewed fighting in Tigray has flared again, with reports of drone strikes and fears hostilities could spill into Eritrea and Sudan. Diplomacy Under Strain: Ethiopia declared an Egyptian diplomat persona non grata, while also expelling Eritrean diplomats and closing its embassy in Asmara, citing security threats amid the northern crisis. Climate & Land Degradation: A report highlights how deforestation and climate shocks are accelerating soil erosion and landslides in Ethiopia’s highlands, deepening hunger risks. Finance & Green Growth: Ethiopia and the World Bank agreed to deepen partnership for private-sector-led growth, jobs, and resilience, including support linked to water and e-mobility. Urban Hospitality & COP32 Prep: EIH unveiled a $55m Hilton Garden Inn in Addis Ababa, aiming to expand accommodation ahead of COP32 in 2027. Digital Finance: Ethiopia’s central bank says mobile money and digital payments are driving a major banking shift, alongside calls for stronger cybersecurity.

Nile Water & Compensation: Ethiopia says it has set up a national committee to quantify economic losses and missed development from Nile projects “blocked or obstructed” by Egypt, naming more than 22 projects including the GERD, as it compiles claims for possible redress. Land Degradation & Food Security: A new report highlights how deforestation, flooding, drought, and soil erosion are driving declining yields in Ethiopia’s highlands, with land degradation costing billions annually and worsening hunger risk. El Niño Intensification: Climate coverage warns that a potentially record-breaking El Niño is forming, with research linking climate change to stronger El Niño impacts—raising stakes for weather extremes across the Horn. Industrial Energy Push (Lamu Refinery): Aliko Dangote and Kenya’s Ruto broke ground on a $16bn, 700,000-bpd refinery in Lamu, with Ethiopia among regional leaders backing the project; the move renews debate over land disputes and environmental concerns. Circular Economy (Electronics): The Philippines launches a circular electronics initiative under the GEM program, underscoring growing regional momentum on recycling and sustainable e-waste systems.

Dangote Refinery Push: Aliko Dangote and Kenya’s President William Ruto broke ground on a $16bn East Africa refinery in Lamu, targeting 700,000 barrels/day and completion in 40 months, with claims of major jobs and regional fuel supply gains. Local Land & Accountability: The launch also faces renewed scrutiny over land compensation and transparency, with local voices calling for due process as construction begins. Ethiopia’s Aviation & Trade Links: Ethiopian Airlines ordered Boeing 777-8 freighters and 777Fs, boosting cargo capacity and reinforcing Ethiopia’s role as a freight gateway. Climate Risk Signals: New reporting highlights growing signs that climate change is intensifying El Niño events, raising stakes for weather extremes across the Horn. Water, Energy, and the Nile: Commentary revisits “Beyond GERD” and the next moves for Ethiopia in the Abay/Blue Nile basin, as regional water politics remain tense. Tourism Tech: Ethiopia’s tourism ministry says it is using digital tools and AI to market destinations and improve visitor services, aiming for more inclusive local benefits. Agricultural Heritage: FAO convened African countries, including Ethiopia, to strengthen capacities for conserving globally important agricultural heritage systems.